Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
